a16 a16z Big Ideas Explorer 2025 + 2026 · 96 tech predictions
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Curated & translated from a16z's official Big Ideas series

The 96 big ideas a16z is betting on for 2025–26

An interactive, bilingual explorer of every Andreessen Horowitz tech prediction for 2025 and 2026 — with stats, a reality check, and a sortable, filterable table.

96Big ideas
2Years
10Teams
76Authors
6Reality-checked

Stats overview

Slice the 96 predictions by category and year to see where a16z is concentrating its bets.

Predictions per category
Split by year
Category × year heatmap
2025
2026
Σ
American Dynamism
8
6
14
Apps
10
10
Bio + Health
4
1
5
Consumer Tech
5
5
Crypto
14
17
31
Enterprise + Fintech
7
7
Games
4
4
Growth
3
4
7
Infrastructure
4
6
10
Speedrun
3
3

Reality check · prediction vs. reality

Six flagship predictions, fact-checked against what actually happened through 2025–26, with sources.

American Dynamism2025

The Resurgence of Nuclear

AI's energy demands are driving a revival of nuclear power. Data centers need clean, consistent energy, spurring reactor orders for the first time in decades through regulatory reform, public support, and capital investment. The reopening of Three Mile Island exemplifies this trend toward securing America's AI leadership.

trending_upWhat actually happened

The prediction held up strongly. Constellation's 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft is reviving Three Mile Island Unit 1 (renamed the Crane Clean Energy Center), with all 835 MW dedicated to Microsoft's AI data centers and restart pulled forward to 2027. In November 2025 the Trump administration's DOE backed the project with a $1 billion federal loan, underscoring nuclear's central role in powering AI.

Bio + Health2025

Big is Back: Tackling Common Diseases (Again)

GLP-1 drugs are creating a $100B+ market by 2030, and breakthrough CAR-T therapies for autoimmune diseases are inspiring new biotech innovation. A German physician's results showed all 15 treatment-resistant patients improved dramatically, signaling a renewed focus on major disease areas.

trending_upWhat actually happened

GLP-1 drugs kept expanding through 2025, with the global GLP-1 receptor agonist market estimated at roughly $63-66 billion and projected to grow at a double-digit CAGR toward $185 billion by 2033. Novo Nordisk's Wegovy grew about 18% year-over-year in Q2 2025 and Ozempic remained near $4.7 billion per quarter, though growth cooled and forecasts were trimmed amid competition and compounded-drug pressure; an estimated 25 million Americans are projected to be on GLP-1 therapy by 2030.

Crypto2025

Enterprises Will Increasingly Accept Stablecoins for Payments

Stablecoins found product-market fit as the cheapest way to send a dollar and as an open platform for new payments products, but large enterprises have not yet awakened to the cost savings available by switching rails. In 2025, expect a bigger wave of experimentation, with small and medium businesses like restaurants and coffee shops switching from credit cards first, since they bear high fees but gain little fraud protection in person. Larger enterprises will also adopt stablecoins to disintermediate payment providers and capture margin, while seeking new solutions for fraud protection and identity.

trending_upWhat actually happened

Enterprise stablecoin acceptance accelerated sharply in 2025. Stripe closed its ~$1.1 billion acquisition of stablecoin infrastructure firm Bridge in February 2025 and rolled out worldwide USDC-settled payments letting merchants accept digital dollars on Ethereum, Base and Polygon at a flat 1.5% fee; within a week payments flowed from 70+ countries (later 120+). Stripe also launched a stablecoin-focused blockchain, Tempo, while surveys showed 6 in 10 Fortune 500 executives pursuing blockchain initiatives.

Growth2025

The Decline of "Google It"

Google's search dominance faces unprecedented pressure from chatbots and specialized answer engines. ChatGPT has 250+ million weekly users while Perplexity grows 25%+ monthly. Domain-specific providers like Consensus and Harvey serve niche needs, further fragmenting search.

trending_upWhat actually happened

The prediction was borne out: Google's global search share dipped below 90% for most of 2025, a level not seen since 2015, as AI-native tools gained ground. On a broader information-discovery basis combining search and AI sessions, Google's share fell from 89.3% in December 2022 to 57.6% by December 2025, while Perplexity grew roughly 370% year-over-year, confirming real erosion of Google's discovery monopoly.

Infrastructure2025

Hypercenters: The Regional Race for AI Infrastructure

AI Hypercenters are regions with 3-6 gigawatts of installed capacity to develop, train, and host frontier models. Nations including the U.S., China, Japan, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia are competing to reach this scale, viewing compute capacity as critical strategic infrastructure.

trending_upWhat actually happened

The gigawatt-scale buildout materialized faster than expected. OpenAI's $500 billion Stargate project with Oracle and SoftBank brought its flagship Abilene, Texas site online in September 2025 (scaling toward 1.2 GW), and the partners announced five new U.S. sites that push planned capacity to nearly 7-9 GW across Texas, New Mexico, Ohio and the Midwest, on track to hit the 10 GW, $500B commitment ahead of schedule.

Infrastructure2025

Small, But Mighty: On-Device AI

Smaller on-device models will dominate by usage volume, driven by privacy, economic, and practical considerations. Developments in frameworks like TensorFlow Lite and custom hardware such as the Google Edge TPU will enable responsive experiences on smartphones and IoT devices.

trending_upWhat actually happened

On-device AI advanced as predicted: Apple opened its ~3B-parameter on-device foundation model to developers via a new Foundation Models framework in 2025, and Google shipped Gemini Nano for fully offline summarization and rewriting through ML Kit's GenAI APIs. Small models like Microsoft's Phi-4, Gemma and Qwen now run quantized on phones, though local adoption in 2025 was still more bleeding-edge than turnkey due to hardware fragmentation and tooling immaturity.

All 96 predictions

Click a column header to sort, filter by year and category, search live. Click any row for the bilingual detail.

96 predictions
Yeararrow_downwardCategoryunfold_moreBig ideaunfold_moreAuthorunfold_moreCheckunfold_more
2026SpeedrunWorld models take the spotlight in storytellingAI world models generate immersive 3D environments from text. Technologies like Marble and Genie…Jonathan Lai
2026CryptoWealth management for allTokenized assets enable personalized active portfolio management across classes with instant reb…Maggie Hsu, Head of Go-to-Market for a16z crypto
2026CryptoWe'll use AI for substantive research tasksAI models now execute abstract research instructions like doctoral students, occasionally return…Scott Duke Kominers, Research Partner at a16z crypto
2026AppsVoice agents take up spaceAI voice agents managing real business interactions have moved from science fiction to reality, …Olivia Moore
2026GrowthVertical AI evolves from information retrieval and reasoning to multiplayerVertical software in healthcare, legal, and finance is maturing beyond information extraction. A…Alex Immerman
2026CryptoUnleashing the full potential of blockchains… when legal architecture finally matches technical architectureLegal uncertainty forced founders into company-oriented frameworks, creating distortions: avoide…Miles Jennings, General Counsel and Head of Decentralization for a16z crypto
2026CryptoTrading as a way station, not the last stop, for crypto businessesMost successful crypto companies have pivoted to trading, but this cannibalizes mindshare and cr…Arianna Simpson, General Partner at a16z crypto
2026CryptoThinking about tokenization of real world assets, and stablecoins, in a more crypto-native wayRather than skeuomorphic tokenization, crypto-native approaches like perpetual futures offer dee…Guy Wuollet, General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz
2026InfrastructureThe year we step inside videoVideo models now maintain temporal coherence, remember content, and respond to user input. As Yo…Yoko Li
2026CryptoThe rise of staked mediaMedia credibility can shift from claimed neutrality to verifiable stakes. Tokenized assets, lock…Robert Hackett, Operating Partner and Head of Content/Editorial for a16z crypto
2026American DynamismThe renaissance of the American factoryManufacturing is being reborn with AI and software at its core, as companies adopt a factory min…Erin Price-Wright
2026American DynamismThe next wave of observability will be physical, not digitalOver the past decade, software observability transformed digital systems; now physical observabi…Zabie Elmgren
2026CryptoThe invisible tax on the open webAI agents extract data from ad-supported sites while bypassing revenue streams funding content c…Elizabeth Harkavy, Partner on a16z crypto investment team
2026CryptoThe internet becomes the bankAs agents operate autonomously, value must move as freely as information. Smart contracts enable…Christian Crowley, Business Development Partner for a16z crypto
2026SpeedrunThe first AI-native universityEducational institutions designed around intelligent systems can optimize courses, advising, and…Emily Bennett
2026GrowthThe end of the screen time KPI in AI applicationsOutcome-based pricing is replacing screen-time metrics in AI applications. Examples include Deep…Santiago Rodriguez
2026American DynamismThe electro-industrial stack will move the worldThe next industrial revolution lies in the convergence of electrification, materials, and AI, br…Ryan McEntush
2026InfrastructureThe AI-native data stack continues to evolveThe modern data stack is consolidating toward unified platforms. Future evolution includes vecto…Jason Cui
2026CryptoThe (near) future of messaging isn't just quantum-resistant. It's decentralizedCurrent messengers rely on centralized servers vulnerable to government shutdown or corporate co…Shane Mac, Co-founder and CEO of XMTP Labs
2026GrowthSystems of record lose groundAI collapses the distance between intent and execution, transforming passive databases into auto…Sarah Wang
2026InfrastructureStartups tame the chaos of multimodal dataEnterprises struggle with unstructured data such as PDFs, videos, emails, and logs. The opportun…Jennifer Li
2026CryptoStablecoins unlock the bank ledger upgrade cycle — and new payment scenariosLegacy banking systems running 1960s-1980s software on mainframes with COBOL create technical de…Sam Broner, Investing Partner for a16z crypto team
2026AppsPrompt-free and proactive applications arriveThe prompt box dies in 2026 as mainstream AI apps eliminate visible prompting, and instead obser…Marc Andrusko
2026CryptoPrivacy will be the most important moat in cryptoPrivacy creates chain lock-in through network effects, and while competing on performance alone …Ali Yahya, General Partner at a16z crypto
2026CryptoPrediction markets go bigger, broader, and smarterPrediction markets will expand beyond major elections to granular outcomes, intersecting with cr…Andrew Hall, Research Advisor to the a16z crypto team
2026AppsNew model primitives unlock previously impossible companies2026 brings companies that could not exist before recent breakthroughs in reasoning, multimodali…Kimberly Tan
2026Bio + HealthHealthy MAUsA new healthcare segment is emerging: engaged consumers who proactively monitor their health des…Julie Yoo
2026CryptoFrom know your customer (KYC) to 'know your agent' (KYA)The agent economy bottleneck has shifted from intelligence to identity. Non-human identities now…Sean Neville, Cofounder of Circle, CEO of Catena Labs
2026CryptoFrom 'code is law' to 'spec is law'DeFi hacks reveal that current security practices remain heuristic. Moving from bug patterns to …Daejun Park, Senior Blockchain Security Engineer at a16z crypto
2026AppsForward-deployed motions take AI to the 99%Most AI startup benefits have so far accrued to Silicon Valley-connected companies, but in 2026 …Joe Schmidt
2026American DynamismData crusade in our critical industriesCritical industries generate massive amounts of unstructured data, from truck rolls and meter re…Will Bitsky
2026CryptoCrypto offers a new primitive for use beyond blockchainsSNARKs had impractical overhead (1,000,000X) but zkVM provers will hit ~10,000X overhead with sm…Justin Thaler, Research Partner at a16z and Associate Professor at Georgetown University
2026InfrastructureCreative tools go multimodalGenerative media tools now enable video continuation, character creation, and scene reshoot capa…Justine Moore
2026GrowthCreating for agents, not humansAs people increasingly interface through agents, design priorities shift from visual hierarchy t…Stephenie Zhang
2026AppsConsumer AI shifts from "help me" to "see me"In 2026 consumer AI transitions from productivity assistance to connectivity and self-understand…Bryan Kim
2026AppsChatGPT becomes the AI app storeConsumer product cycles require new technology, new behavior, and new distribution. With the Ope…Anish Acharya
2026American DynamismBuilding the AI-native industrial baseAmerica's economic foundation is shifting toward an industrial base that is AI-native and softwa…David Ulevitch
2026CryptoBetter, more clever onramps/offramps for stablecoinsStablecoins processed $46 trillion in volume last year—exceeding PayPal 20x and approaching ACH …Jeremy Zhang, Full Stack Web Developer on a16z's Crypto team
2026American DynamismAutonomous labs accelerate scientific discoveryAs AI and robotics capabilities advance across modalities, teams will pursue autonomous scientif…Oliver Hsu
2026AppsAI will finally upgrade banking and insurance infrastructureWhile banks have layered AI atop legacy systems, true transformation requires rebuilding the und…Angela Strange
2026AppsAI startups selling to other AI startups reach scaleIn an unprecedented moment of company creation, startups can win distribution over incumbents by…James da Costa
2026InfrastructureAI revives cybersecurity hiringSecurity teams face a hiring crisis because staff are bogged down in repetitive log reviews. AI …Joel de la Garza
2026AppsAI reinforces business modelsThe best AI startups amplify customer economics rather than merely automating tasks. Firms like …David Haber
2026AppsAI creates a new orchestration layer—and new roles—in the Fortune 500Enterprises will shift from isolated AI tools to multi-agent systems that coordinate like digita…Seema Amble
2026InfrastructureAgent-native infrastructure becomes table stakesEnterprise backends designed for human-speed traffic cannot handle agent-speed, recursive worklo…Malika Aubakirova
2026Speedrun"The year of me"Products are shifting from mass production toward deep personalization. AI tutors adapt to indiv…Joshua Lu
2026Crypto'Secrets-as-a-service'Most data pipelines lack privacy controls, blocking institutional participation in tokenized ass…Adeniyi Abiodun, Chief Product Officer and Co-founder of Mysten Labs
2025American DynamismXR Devices Get Developer-ReadyExtended reality (XR) platforms like Apple Vision Pro and Meta Orion enable developers to build …Oliver Hsu
2025Enterprise + FintechWhen Regulation Becomes CodeRegulatory compliance consumes enormous resources across banking, insurance, and healthcare. Len…Angela Strange
2025CryptoWe'll See Greater Adoption of the 'DUNA,' a New Industry Standard for Blockchain Networks in the U.S.In 2024 Wyoming passed a law recognizing the DUNA (decentralized unincorporated nonprofit associ…Miles Jennings
2025CryptoVarious Sectors May Start Tokenizing "Unconventional" AssetsAs infrastructure matures and costs fall, tokenizing assets will spread across sectors, allowing…Aaron Schnider
2025Consumer TechThe Year of the "AI Brain"LLMs can process digital exhaust—texts, emails, tweets, browsing history—to create "digital brai…Justine Moore
2025American DynamismThe Resurgence of NuclearAI's energy demands are driving a revival of nuclear power. Data centers need clean, consistent …David Ulevitchfact_check
2025American DynamismThe Next Phase of Robot Data CollectionBeyond collecting foundation-scale robot data, the focus is shifting to benchmarks, preference d…Jacob Phillips
2025American DynamismThe Jobs of the Future: Crossing the Hardware-Software ChasmTechnical roles that bridge hardware and software are expanding as autonomy advances across defe…Erin Price-Wright
2025American DynamismThe Future of Defense Is DecentralizedMilitary decisions are shifting to edge operations, where autonomous drones and AI systems opera…Ryan McEntush
2025GrowthThe Decline of "Google It"Google's search dominance faces unprecedented pressure from chatbots and specialized answer engi…Alex Immermanfact_check
2025CryptoThe Crypto Industry Finally Gets Its Own App Stores, and DiscoveryWhen centralized platforms like Apple's App Store or Google Play block crypto apps, they limit t…Maggie Hsu
2025Consumer TechThe "AI Drummer" and the Promise of Real-Time AIReal-time AI reduces inference latency, enabling seamless co-creation with machines. Application…Anish Acharya
2025Bio + HealthSuper Staffing for HealthcareHealthcare faces severe clinical and administrative staffing shortages. Specialist AI models ser…Julie Yoo
2025InfrastructureSmall, But Mighty: On-Device AISmaller on-device models will dominate by usage volume, driven by privacy, economic, and practic…Jennifer Lifact_check
2025Enterprise + FintechRomanticizing Inorganic GrowthAI-powered service startups will transform low-margin industries by automating voice, email, and…Joe Schmidt
2025Enterprise + FintechRipping Out Legacy Systems of RecordEnterprises will abandon incumbent platforms like Salesforce and Workday in favor of custom AI s…Marc Andrusko
2025American DynamismNew Strides in Free-Space Optical CommunicationsFree-space optical links offer higher bitrates than radio frequency. Advanced modulation schemes…Peter Bowman-Davis
2025CryptoLiquid Democracy Online Goes PhysicalAs dissatisfaction with current governance and voting systems grows, there is an opportunity to …Andrew Hall
2025Consumer TechKnowledge Work Gets PersonalizedAI still struggles to produce outputs that sound authentically like an individual. Similar to Lo…Olivia Moore
2025InfrastructureHypercenters: The Regional Race for AI InfrastructureAI Hypercenters are regions with 3-6 gigawatts of installed capacity to develop, train, and host…Anjney Midhafact_check
2025American DynamismHarnessing Earth Observation DataSatellite imagery doubled from 500 to over 1,000 satellites in five years, yet commercial revenu…Millen Anand
2025CryptoGoing From Prediction Markets to Better Information Aggregation for EverythingPrediction markets reached the mainstream in 2024, but it is not prediction markets per se that …Scott Duke Kominers
2025InfrastructureGenerative AI EverywhereAI deployment extends beyond cloud servers to all devices and applications. Locally-run language…Guido Appenzeller
2025GamesGame Tech Powers Tomorrow's BusinessesGaming technology extends beyond entertainment to solve business challenges. Applications includ…Troy Kirwin
2025Enterprise + FintechEvery White-Collar Worker Will Have an AI CopilotAI copilots will eventually exist for every white-collar role, automating the most painful parts…James da Costa
2025CryptoEnterprises Will Increasingly Accept Stablecoins for PaymentsStablecoins found product-market fit as the cheapest way to send a dollar and as an open platfor…Sam Bronerfact_check
2025CryptoEnter "Decentralized Autonomous Chatbots"Building on AIs owning wallets, a chatbot can run inside a TEE (trusted execution environment) t…Dan Boneh, Daniel Reynaud, Daejun Park, Daren Matsuoka
2025Bio + HealthDrug Targets Are AvocadosIdentifying validated drug targets involves unpredictable timing—"too early...too early...now—to…Jorge Conde
2025Enterprise + FintechDifferentiation vs. Lasting DefensibilityWhile AI creates immediate differentiation, winning startups must build lasting moats to survive…David Haber
2025Bio + HealthDemocratizing Health Through TechAI-powered blood biomarker analysis, wearables, and full-body screening are shifting healthcare …Vijay Pande
2025CryptoCrypto Owners Become Crypto UsersAfter developing as a political movement in 2024 and continuing as a financial one via Bitcoin a…Daren Matsuoka
2025CryptoCrypto Companies Will Begin With the End (-User Experience), Instead of Letting the Infrastructure Determine the UXToday many crypto companies don't truly choose their infrastructure; the infrastructure effectiv…Mason Hall
2025CryptoCountries Explore Putting Government Bonds OnchainPutting government bonds onchain would create a government-backed, interest-bearing digital asse…Brian Quintenz
2025CryptoBuilders Will Reuse, Not Just Reinvent, InfrastructureOver the past year teams kept reinventing the wheel across the blockchain stack, building bespok…Joachim Neu
2025Bio + HealthBig is Back: Tackling Common Diseases (Again)GLP-1 drugs are creating a $100B+ market by 2030, and breakthrough CAR-T therapies for autoimmun…Vineeta Agarwalafact_check
2025GrowthBeyond GPT Wrappers2025 brings the AI-native application layer, where winning founders operate as applied AI engine…Sarah Wang
2025InfrastructureBeyond "Reason": AI Makes Strides in Math, Physics, and CodingWhile LLMs don't truly reason, they show improved performance on technical tasks through better …Matt Bornstein
2025CryptoAs More People Use AI, We'll Need Unique Proof of PersonhoodIn a world of AI-generated impersonations, scams, and deepfakes, we need "proof of personhood" t…Eddy Lazzarin
2025Consumer TechAnalyzing Qualitative Data with AILLMs, web agents, and multimodal models enable the analysis of unstructured data—words, narrativ…Zach Cohen
2025CryptoAn AI Needs a Wallet of One's Own to Act AgenticallyAs AIs shift from background characters to true agents, they need the ability to participate in …Carra Wu
2025Enterprise + FintechAI-Native UI and UXThe maturation of foundation models enables new interaction paradigms beyond chat interfaces. In…Kimberly Tan
2025Consumer TechAI Video Gets SpecializedAI-generated video will segment by use case in 2025, achieving greater storyline depth, characte…Bryan Kim
2025GamesAI Companions With Their Own Inner WorldsCurrent AI companions passively react to user interactions. Next-generation companions will have…Andrew Chen
2025Enterprise + FintechAI Advances From Data Collection to Data-in-ActionBeyond extracting data from emails and calls, AI systems will suggest action sequences based on …Seema Amble
2025GamesA Second Wave of "Faceless" Video CreatorsFaceless creators hide their identity while leveraging AI tools for voice, language, and audio p…Lester Chen
2025GamesA Next-Gen Pixar Will EmergeAn iconic media company will emerge using interactive video, an AI-native storytelling format th…Jonathan Lai
2025GrowthA Golden Era of SalesRather than eliminating salespeople, generative AI enables a golden era of sales by automating a…Joe Morrissey
2025American Dynamism"The Catch" Signals the Next Frontier in SpaceStarship's booster catch achievement enables full, rapid reusability for lift vehicles capable o…Lejla Johnsen
2025Crypto"Hiding the Wires" Helps Usher in Web3's Killer AppBlockchains' technical superpowers make them special but have also hindered mainstream adoption,…Chris Lyons

Categories

a16z groups its big ideas by internal investing team — each focused on a different frontier.